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Prediction for CME (2024-04-18T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-04-18T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30128/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo CME seen to the NE in all coronagraphs. The source is likely a massive dimming region (spanning approximately E35->E15 and S10->N12) following some weak field line and loop breaking (observed across wavelengths SDO AIA 131/171/193/211) from AR 3645, which begins around 2024-04-17T22:09Z and dims until about 2024-04-18T02:09Z. A slow rise in x-ray flux is noted in SDO AIA 131 and GOES real-time x-ray flux over this time but no "flare" occurs. This dimming notably begins well before the start time giving some lower confidence, but this region gave an excellent visual fit in SWPC_CAT during the measurement process compared to other longitudes or Plane-Of-Sky. A wider front to the north of this one emerging at 2024-04-18T04:12Z is likely from this same eruption, measuring 230 km/s as a Plane-Of-Sky.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-21T21:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 390
Longitude (deg): -24
Latitude (deg): -17
Half-angular width (deg): 31 

Notes: Low confidence analysis due to only having availability of C2 imagery. Awaiting Enlil to model updated analysis.
Space weather advisor: T St Vincent

Lead Time: 45.48 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-04-19T23:31Z

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